東北・北海道新幹線整備に伴う青森県・道南地域の交通需要変化に関する研究

概要

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In this study, the impacts of new Shinkansen lines to be constructed in Aomori Prefecture and Donan District, the south part of Hokkaido, were estimated in terms of travel demand between the two districts. First, the travel demand between districts after the construction of new Shinkansen lines was estimated. Then, the number of passengers expected to use the six new Shinkansen stations was estimated. For the travel demand estimation, generalized costs of travel, population of a district and economic growth were explanatory variables. Since the generalized cost was expressed by travel fees and travel times on the Shinkansen and in the air, the travel demand between the two districts was estimated taking into account change in mobility brought by the new Shinkansen lines. The numbers of passenger using the new Shinkansen stations was lastly estimated by using the modal share of the Shinkansen. The results clarified that most of the new Shinkansen stations would have an increased number of passengers even with a decreased population in the future. However, the new Shichnohe Shinkansen station to be constructed in Aomori Prefecture would have a decreased number of passengers when compared with the present railway station, Noheji station, due to the inconvenient access to the Shinkansen station from the center of the district.