Time Series Analysis of Incidence Data of Influenza in Japan
スポンサーリンク
概要
- 論文の詳細を見る
Background: Much effort has been expended on interpreting the mechanism of influenza epidemics, so as to better predict them. In addition to the obvious annual cycle of influenza epidemics, longer-term incidence patterns are present. These so-called interepidemic periods have long been a focus of epidemiology. However, there has been less investigation of the interepidemic period of influenza epidemics. In the present study, we used spectral analysis of influenza morbidity records to indentify the interepidemic period of influenza epidemics in Japan.Methods: We used time series data of the monthly incidence of influenza in Japan from January 1948 through December 1998. To evaluate the incidence data, we conducted maximum entropy method (MEM) spectral analysis, which is useful in investigating the periodicities of shorter time series, such as that of the incidence data used in the present study. We also conducted a segment time series analysis and obtained a 3-dimensional spectral array.Results: Based on the results of power spectral density (PSD) obtained from MEM spectral analysis, we identified 3 periodic modes as the interepidemic periods of the incidence data. Segment time series analysis revealed that the amount of amplitude of the interepidemic periods increased during the occurrence of influenza pandemics and decreased when vaccine programs were introduced.Conclusions: The findings suggest that the temporal behavior of the interepidemic periods of influenza epidemics is correlated with the magnitude of cross-reactive immune responses.
著者
-
Sumi Ayako
Department of Hygiene, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine
-
Kamo Ken-ichi
Department of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Sapporo Medical University
-
Ohtomo Norio
Natural Energy Research Center Co. Ltd.
-
Mise Keiji
Center for Medical Education, Department of Admissions, Sapporo Medical University
-
Kobayashi Nobumichi
Department of Hygiene, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine
関連論文
- Time Series Analysis of Incidence Data of Influenza in Japan
- Prediction Analysis for Measles Epidemics
- Multidrug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolated from the urine of patients with urinary tract infection
- Study of the Effect of Vaccination on Periodic Structures of Measles Epidemics in Japan
- Proportion of Sporadic Gastroenteritis Cases Caused by Rotavirus, Norovirus, Adenovirus and Bacteria in Japan from January 2000 to December 2003
- Asymptotic forms of positive solutions of second-order quasilinear ordinary differential equations with sub-homogeneity
- Analysis on production of enterotoxins and toxic shock syndrome toxin-1 in recent isolates of Staphylococcus aureus in a hospital
- Developmental Stage Specificity in Sister-Chromatid Exchange Induction by Three Chemicals in Early Mouse Embryonic Cells with Two Different Ways of Exposure
- Diversity of staphylocoagulase and identification of novel variants of staphylocoagulase gene in Staphylococcus aureus
- Classification of proper solutions of some Emden-Fowler equations
- Time Series Analysis of Incidence Data of Influenza in Japan
- MEM spectral analysis for predicting influenza epidemics in Japan
- Spectral Analysis of Spatial Series Data of Pathologic Tissue: A Study on Small Intestine in ICR Mouse