Spatial Analysis of Low Pathogenic H5N2 Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Japan in 2005

概要

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We conducted a spatial analysis of low pathogenic H5N2 avian influenza (AI) outbreaks, that affected 41 chicken farms in Japan in 2005. A statistically significant (p=0.001) cluster of AI-positive farms was identified in the central part of Ibaraki Prefecture. Inside the AI cluster, the density was high for both chicken farms and chicken population, the proportion of layer finisher type farms was high and the farm size was large. We considered it important to take precautions for AI outbreaks in densely chicken-populated areas and to implement appropriate movement control around the affected farms to prevent transmission among farms located within small distances in the case of AI outbreaks. Spatial scan statistics are applicable in veterinary epidemiology to detection of high risk areas for animal diseases.