ロシアにおける銀行の資金運用状況(1992〜1998年初め)所在地別、設立母体別、規模別視点から

概要

論文の詳細を見る
In former studies about Russian banks, analysis from a comprehensive viewpoint has been almost completely ignored. In order to clarify the characteristics of Russian banking activities, an analysis from the viewpoints of bank location, foundation and scale is indispensable. Russian banks have shown some distinguishing characteristics in their activities when viewed by these classifications. To analyze this situation, we have classified Russian banks in this article by their location, foundation and scale. To do this we used the lists of large Russian banks that were periodically published in "Ekonomika i zhizn'" (data as of July 1994, January 1995, January 1996 and January 1997; the list has not been published since 1998) and "Finansovye izvestiia" (data as of January 1996, January 1997 and January 1998). The situation after 1998 was not analyzed because of the lack of information. For an analysis of Russian banking activities by bank foundation, banks were classified into former state banks and non-former state banks. Former state banks include the Savings Bank of Russia, Promstroibank of USSR, Agroprombank of USSR, Zhilsotsbank of USSR (excluding the Foreign Trade Bank of Russia) and the Foreign Trade Bank of Russia. For an analysis of activities by their location, banks were classified into those which were located in Moscow city and Moscow oblast (hereafter referred to as Moscow banks) and those in 11 other economic regions (North, Northwest, Central excluding Moscow city and Moscow oblast, Volga-Vyatka, Central Black-Soil, Volga, North Caucasus, Urals, West Siberia, East Siberia, and Far East; Kaliningrad was excluded because there were no data about it). The banks in these economic regions are referred to below as regional banks. In addition, regression analysis was applied to clarify differences in banking activities by bank foundation and location. Because of the limited data, in the regression banks were classified by foundation into former state banks and non-former state banks, and banks were classified by location into Moscow banks and regional banks. In the analysis by bank scale, data were taken into account for the banks that were ranked as the 50 top banks in the 100 largest bank lists and for 50 banks from the bottom of the lists. Regression was then used to confirm whether or not differences existed in the activities between large banks and medium-sized banks. Before analyzing Russian banks' activities by these classifications, let us survey the trends and changes of their lending and investing activities. Russian banks earned profits under the hyperinflation caused by the liberalization of prices in January 1992, through devaluation of their liabilities and from other sources. Subsequent government tight money policies led to the suppression of inflation and stabilization of the ruble exchange rate. From about 1994, therefore, banks tended to increase loans to other banks, although they still held a large share of hard currency as non-working assets. The banks made profits by raising funds in the call market and lending the money as call loans under a positive yield curve for terms longer than the call money repayment period. Such a profit-making structure collapsed under tight monetary and fiscal policies, however, and some banks fell into default in August 1995. Banks therefore began to place more emphasis on their lending activities to non-bank sectors or to holdings of state securities. Especially after 1995 the amount of outstanding state securities has increased dramatically, because the government was prohibited in 1995 from compensating its budget deficits with Central Bank loans. Because the inflation rate decreased further in 1996-1997, the refinance rate of the Central Bank also was reduced. This resulted in the decline of the yield on state securities. During these years banks tended to increase the amount of loans to non-bank sectors, reducing the proportion of non-working assets. In the following sections we will analyze loans to non-bank sectors, loans to other banks and holdings of state securities. 1. Loans to non-bank sectors. In this section we will analyze the general situation regarding loans to non-bank sectors and the situation of foreign currency-denominated loans to non-bank sectors. (1) General situation of loans to non-bank sectors. First we analyzed the situation by foundation of banks. In the data of "Ekonomika i zhizn'" the share of loans to non-bank sectors in the assets of the former Promstroibank and Agroprombank was high. This was because these banks had strong relationships with their customers, industrial and agricultural companies. In contrast, the share of loans to non-bank sectors in the assets of the former Zhilsotsbank was lower than that of the former Promstroibank and Agroprombank. Banks that originated from the former Zhilsotsbank did not tend to participate in unprofitable government economic programs such as agricultural programs. Activities of these banks were quite different -- some of them gave priority to loans to non-bank sectors, while others gave weight to operations of state securities. The share of loans to non-bank sectors at the Foreign Trade Bank of Russia was much lower than that of banks of other categories. That was because its main activities were to hold its assets in hard currency in foreign banks. The share of loans to non-bank sectors at non-former state banks was lower than that of the former Promstroibank and Agroprombank but higher than that of the former Zhilsotsbank. Let us further analyze the situation of loans to non-bank sectors by the location of banks. In the data of "Ekonomika i zhizn'" the share of loans to non-bank sectors at Moscow banks was much lower than that of regional banks in 1994 and 1995, but in 1996 and 1997 differences between Moscow banks and regional banks became smaller. Furthermore, regression indicates that the share of loans to non-bank sectors at smaller Moscow former state banks tended to be greater in 1994 and 1995. From the viewpoint of the scale of banks, the share of loans to non-bank sectors at larger banks tended to be lower. But in 1996 and 1997 differences between classifications were smaller. In the data of "Finansovye izvestiia" the share of loans to non-bank sectors in the assets of non-former state banks was the highest of all categories by foundation of bank. At the former Promstroibank, Agroprombank and Zhilsotsbank and at the Foreign Trade Bank of Russia, the share was about 20-30%. In the data of "Finansovye izvestiia" the share of loans to non-bank sectors at non-former state banks exceeded that of the former Promstroibank and Agroprombank. This is different from the result of the analysis based on the data of "Ekonomika i zhizn'" and is caused by the difference in the definition of "asset" in the data. This means the share of interest arrears, the inter-office account and other assets in the assets of the former Promstroibank and Agroprombank was larger than the share at non-former-state banks. The share of loans to non-bank sectors at the Savings Bank of Russia was much lower than that of other categories. This was caused by the weakness of the bank's relationship with companies in the Soviet era. In the data of "Finansovye izvestiia" regression shows that larger non-former state banks tended to loan more, whereas differences between Moscow banks and regional banks were weaker. On the other hand, differences between large banks and medium-sized banks became greater as years passed, which is distinguished by the smaller proportion of loans to non-bank sectors at larger banks. (2) Foreign currency loans to non-bank sectors. The data of "Finansovye izvestiia" were used for an analysis of foreign currency loans to non-bank sectors (there were no such data in "Ekonomika i zhizn'"). The data showed that of loans to non-bank sectors, the share of foreign currency loans tended to be larger at the non-former state banks than at the former state banks, but differences by location of banks were weak. Regression shows that the share of foreign currency loans to non-bank sectors denominated at larger non-former state banks tended to be greater. Differences between large banks and medium-sized banks were evident. 2. Loans to other banks. In this paper we defined "loans to other banks" as loans that were included in the category "Loans" on the balance sheet, excluding deposits in correspondent accounts at other banks. Only the data in 1994 and 1995 of "Ekonomika i zhizn'" were consistent with this definition. According to the data the proportion of loans to other banks in the total of all bank loans was high in Central (excluding Moscow city and Moscow oblast) in 1994, and high in Moscow city and Moscow oblast and Urals in 1995. Therefore differences in loans to other banks between Moscow banks and regional banks were not so evident. From the viewpoint of the foundation of banks, the share of loans to other banks at non-former state banks was higher. This was related to the weakness of their relationship with companies when compared with the former Promstroibank and Agroprombank, as well as the lower overall share of loans to non-bank sectors (in the data of "Ekonomika i zhizn'"). Moreover, regression proved that non-former state banks tended to loan to other banks more than former state banks. On the other hand, differences between large banks and medium-sized banks were not observed in the data. 3. Holdings of state securities. Data about holdings of state securities were available in "Finansovye izvestiia." From the viewpoint of the foundation of banks the share of state securities in the assets of the Savings Bank of Russia was far larger than that of other categories, and the share in the assets of the Foreign Trade Bank of Russia was relatively high. Differences between former state banks and non-former state banks were clear. From the viewpoint of location, the share of state securities in the assets of Moscow banks tended to be higher than the share at regional banks. Analysis by regression showed that in 1996 and 1998, differences in holdings of state securities by both foundation and location were clear, and the share of state securities at larger Moscow former state banks tended to be higher. Furthermore, in 1996 and 1998 differences between large banks and medium-sized banks were clear, judged from the higher share of state securities in the assets of large banks than those of medium-sized banks. Conclusion. In many phases of Russian banking activities, differences in characteristics according to the foundation of banks came to the fore. Differences in characteristics by the location of banks were weaker, except for holdings of state securities. Differences based on the scale of banks were outstanding, especially differences in loans to non-bank sectors. Recently differences in the activities between large banks and medium-sized banks have attracted more media attention. On the other hand, differences by foundation of banks in particular have tended to be ignored. Our analysis indicates, however, that viewing bank activity from the standpoint of the foundation of banks is still effective to explain Russian banking activities. Our work may as well be the first step towards understanding the changing activities of Russian banks since the collapse of USSR. The task of analyzing the situation after the crisis of August 1998 remains to be addressed.
北海道大学スラブ研究センターの論文

ロシアにおける銀行の資金運用状況(1992〜1998年初め)所在地別、設立母体別、規模別視点から

スポンサーリンク

概要

北海道大学スラブ研究センター | 論文

スポンサーリンク