Constraints to projecting the effects of climate change on mammals

概要

論文の詳細を見る
Ecologists are under pressure to anticipate the ecological effects of climate change.Therefore many ecological publications (and most grant proposals) related to climate claim relevanceto the projection of future climate change effects. Yet the steps leading from ecological description andunderstanding to reliable projection are rarely explicit. A good understanding of the factors whichallow the ecological effects of climate change to be effectively anticipated is critical to both the qualityof basic science and its application to public policy. We used research performed on mammals to explorescientific approaches to anticipation of climate change effects. We distinguished forecastingmodels based on correlations from predictive models based on cause-effect relationships. These categoriesrepresent extremes along a continuous gradient between pattern description and causal understanding.We suggest that the constraints to our capacity to anticipate fall into 6 broad categoriesrooted in the development and application of forecasting and predictive models. These categories helpto identify the conditions that allow or prevent projection of the effects of climate change on ecosystems.This approach should also help to identify which research avenues will likely be most fruitful.
Inter-Researchの論文
2006-10-13