街区レべルの近傍関係を考慮した市街化予測方法に関する研究 : 大都市圏縁辺部としての琵琶湖集水域を対象に

概要

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Urban areas have recently increased with the development of transportation systems in the marginal regions of metropolitan areas and it makes the competition of urban area and other land use such as farmland and forest aggravate further. The purpose of this study is to propose the method for analysis and simulation of urbanization using Geographic Information Systems(GIS) in the Lake Biwa's drainage basin, focusing on the neighborhood relationship on block level. The main results of this study are as follows.1) The hit rate of urbanization forecasting model proposed in this sutdy is 58.7% throughout the Lake Biwa's drainage basin. By this method, although it is able to predict the diffusion phenomenon of the new urban areas around the old ones, there is the limit in prediction of intensive urbanization.2) The urbanization forecasting model is applicable to the evaluation of land use control. From the prediction results during 1965-1994, it is evident that most of the urban areas expanded intensively in the distant area from the old urban ones in the urbanization control area and the white area in the past 30 years. Moreover, from the prediction results of future urbanization after 1994, it is pointed out that superfluous specification of the urbanization promotion area and the use district has been determined, except for the region which adjoins the Keihanshin metropolitan area.
お茶の水地理学会の論文
2004-03-20