世界市場の基軸国へ向かう中国(<特集>中国経済をどうみるか)
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概要
- 論文の詳細を見る
After the period of "Global Capitalism" in 1990s, the World Capitalism polarized into American-European Capitalism and Asian-Chinese Capitalism. In the first 10 years of the 21st century CHINA was transformed from the factory of the world to the market of the world. After Lehman- Shock American economy has been falling from the position of the key country of the world. World Bank report in 2011 says the international monetary system will be tripolar system of dollar, euro and yuan for the time being. In 2010 Chinese manufacturing industry got the leading position of world manufacturing industry. Chinese manufacturing industry recovered the position before early in the 19st century. American manufacturing industry holds the second place. Chinese gigantic capitalism inherits the leading character of world economy from American capitalism in 21st century. Chinese industry succeeds productive power of automotive and IT industries from America. Since 2008 China has been the biggest automobile market which becomes the axis of the world market. IT industry and Household appliance industry will get the same position. Though Chinese economy is making progress rapidly, it suffers from inflation, aging society, progress of urbanization. Inflation is the consequence of China's exchange intervention to keep undervaluation of yuan. Aging society needs a good social security system. Decrease of young labor force demands the transformation of production process based on the IT-revolution. Progress of urbanization and industrialization caused real estate bubble and difficulties of local governments. Our question is whether the Chinese Communist Party can realize the difficulties and finds rational resolutions or not? The substance of Chinese Communist Party is bureaucracy therefore self-reformation will be impossible. Accordingly China will be the axis of world business cycle in the near future and then market economy will force China to rationalize bureaucracy and society. Thereafter Chinese society and community will challenge to control overdoing of market economy.
- 経済理論学会の論文
- 2011-10-20