グリーンニューディールの構築 : 合衆国の場合
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概要
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The U. S. economy will need to undertake a major transition of its entire energy infrastructure in order to raise the living standard of U. S. residents over the next generation. The U. S. energy transformation will entail three major projects: 1. Investments to raise energy efficiency in buildings, industry and transportation, such that overall energy consumption in the United States falls by about 30 percent from its current level of about 95 quads to about 65 quads. We will need to reach this efficiency standard while also providing for the expansion of good job opportunities and rising average incomes. As we have seen, the proposal described here is able to achieve the necessary cuts in emissions while also expanding job opportunities. 2. Investments in clean renewable energy sources- including wind, solar, geothermal and clean biofuels. Clean renewable sources will need to supply about 15 quads of the total 65 quads needed to power the U. S. economy. 3. Delivering around 50 quads of total energy through operating the U. S. economy's existing capacity of oil, coal, natural gas, and nuclear power supplies. The challenge here will be to determine how best to manage the excess capacity with non-renewable energy sources that will result when total U. S. energy consumption falls from 95 to 65 quads, with 15 quads being supplied by clean renewables. As I have discussed above, crucial considerations here include emission levels, other environmental impacts, job creation, public safety, minimizing oil imports, and the social impacts on communities of traditional energy industries facing decline. This transition to a clean energy economy will be greatly bolstered by two basic sets of findings presented in the last two sections of this paper. The first is that the transition to a clean energy economy will be a major new engine of job creation. As we have seen, investments in clean energy generates about 3 times more jobs than spending within the fossil fuel sector. As such, if the U. S. spends about $110 billion a year on investments in efficiency and expanding capacity of clean renewables, and that level of investments is exactly matched by declines in fossil fuel spending, the net effect will be to increase overall U. S. employment by 1.2 million jobs. Finally, we have seen there is no research which shows any significant negative effect on GDP growth of policies that would limit the supply of fossil fuels. Even the opponents of cap-and-trade legislation found through their modeling exercises that the impact of such measures on GDP growth will be negligible. This finding does not suggest that maintaining a high GDP growth rate should be, in itself, the foundation for raising U. S. living standards. But it does suggest that we can achieve two cornerstones of a higher living standard-good jobs and a sustainable environment-without having to also be focused on the consequences for living standards of a declining GDP growth rate. Overall then, what emerges through our examination of these questions undertaking major public and private investments in U. S. economy on clean energy-i. e. energy efficiency and clean renewables-will produce major gains for the living standard of people in the United States. U. S. residents will be able to live in a cleaner and safer environment, and the process of creating that cleaner and safer environment will also bring an expansion of good job opportunities and rising average incomes. This is the agenda for a Green New Deal in the U. S. over the next generation.
- 経済理論学会の論文
- 2013-04-20