地球温暖化が引き起こす影響 : 最近の科学的知見(<特集>地球温暖化の気候科学とエネルギー)

概要

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Scientific understanding of future climate risks at global scale is an essential element of international negotiation and agreement on climate stabilization target. In 2007, the IPCC fourth assessment report was published and it summarized existing knowledge on climate risks at the time. After the publish of the IPCC report, further studies relevant to climate risks analyses have been conducted and the results of those additional studies are also expected to affect the international negotiations scheduled for the coming decade. Among those new scientific findings on climate risks at global scale, impacts of extreme events, consequences of large change in the climate system like global-mean temperature increase by 4℃ or more from the pre-industrial level and concerns about highly nonlinear transitions of the Earth System are often mentioned. In this article, the emerging understandings of climate risks are overviewed with several points to keep in mind in arguing climate policies based on them. Simply stated, recognition and evaluation of uncertainty in the knowledge of climate risks as well as of the response measures are indispensable.
2013-03-20