Classification and Choices of Management Regimes for Marginal Timber Plantations

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As a result of increasing costs of forest management and reduced prices for timber, the area of forest land where timber plantations are managed with the expectation of profitability has declined significantly. This has made large areas of plantations 'marginal' in an economic sense. Marginal plantations can be classified into three categories ; 1) Timber plantations with no stumpage value, 2) Timber plantations with stumpage value lower than the cost of conventional high input regeneration, and 3) Timber plantations with negative expected NPVs for the next rotation. In an optimization model for even-aged forest management, forest owners should first decide the method of regeneration, assuming that the forest is clear-cut now, and then make a decision on the final cutting. Rational economic choices for management differ depending on the category of plantation. In particular, the constraints which apply to the method of regeneration have different effects in each class. For marginal plantations where stumpage value is low, the tendency for risk aversion is not significant. Given the uncertainty of timber prices in the future, it can be a rational choice for forest owners not to harvest marginal plantations immediately, but to keep the option to harvest at any time in the future. Finally, the choices for partial cutting are discussed and the question of adequate restrictions on the method of harvesting and regeneration are considered.
森林計画学会の論文

Classification and Choices of Management Regimes for Marginal Timber Plantations

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