中国の物価安定と金融政策の役割
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概要
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For approximately 30 years, since the introduction of the Reform and Opening Policy in 1978, China's economy has maintained a high lasting growth of 10% annual average rate. However, such high lasting growth has not always enjoyed favorable conditions, with overheating occurring at one point, and stagnation at another. Severe fluctuation of commodity prices has also occurred in the repetitions of the business cycle. Consumer prices, for example, recorded a peak of 24.1% in 1994 during the inflation of the 1990s. Although they later subsided to a level below the growth rate of real GDP in 1996, both GDP and commodity prices entered a deceleration phase in 1998 with five years of deflation until 2002. In the years since 2003, China's economy succeeded in resolving the situation, but inflation later returned. Every time such severe fluctuation of commodity prices has occurred, the Chinese government and the People's Bank of China have set forth a series of monetary policies to stabilize commodity prices, such as control of interest rates and adjustment of the money supply. The effect of the monetary policies on the stabilization of commodity prices, however, has not yet gained a consensus. Much research has already been conducted on the relationship between commodity price fluctuation and monetary policy in China. Earlier research showed different consequences regarding the effects of monetary policy on the stabilization of commodity prices, and in many cases a single financing policy variable was utilized in the analysis. However, in China, where interest rates are used as operating variables while money supply is placed as interim targets, analyses in which a single monetary policy variable is used are limited. In this analysis, therefore, money supply and interest rates are both considered as means of China's monetary policy, and the VAR (Vector Autoregressive) is utilized in the analysis of the effects of monetary policy on the fluctuation of commodity prices. The objective of this analysis is to clarify the role of monetary policy from the viewpoint of stabilization of commodity prices.