現局面における米価下落の要因について : 需要構造分析の視点から
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概要
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Japan experienced its first sharp decline in the trend of rice prices after WWII, and consequently it is important to establish the factors behind this event. This paper, focusing on changes in consumer demand for rice and the development of labor adjustment in the national economy, makes ample use of statistical data to examine the factors behind the decline in the price of rice from the latter half of the 1990s. First, the portion of the change in rice consumption from the latter half of the 1990s to the first half of the 2000s that can be attributed to broad adjustments in the labor market was determined. From this analysis, it became clear that the first post-war long-term fall in both wage levels and numbers of workers was taking place; that this decline was heavily biased towards the construction, manufacturing, logistics and service industries at the level of the small- and medium-sized enterprise; and from analysis of the "Family Income and Expenditure Survey" that the impact of this labor adjustment was biased towards the members of the lower income classes. Low-income classes were most affected by labor adjustment. Further, I establish that from the latter half of the 1990s, reducing income levels lead to lower-income classes spending less on rice, and the difference with the price of rice paid by higher-income classes increased. The implication is that reducing income levels of the lower-income classes strengthened the tendency to lower prices of rice. Additionally, it is clearly established that the increase in the take-out/eating out consumption pattern is a factor in the reducing price of rice. The reason is that the use of blended rice by the take-out/eating out industry makes it easier to establish a cheap rice consumption pattern among consumers. Through my analysis, I clearly show that the reduction in the price of rice is not a matter of factors internal to the agricultural industry, but is due rather to external factors, in particular the impact of labor adjustment on consumers and the corresponding changes in their consumption patters. The price of rice thus entered a new phase in the period from the latter half of the 1990s.
- 2008-10-30
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