ANALYSIS OF BRAND CHARACTERISTICS OF MUSIC ARTISTS IN THE POP CD MARKET : CASE OF JAPAN

概要

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Following [23], the customers for the CD market are classified into twelve segments along two axes: "Artist Loyalty" and "Market Sensitivity". The purchasing behavior of individual customers is formulated as a Markov chain in discrete time. The transition structure of the customers across the twelve segments is common. However, the market segmentation is reflected by altering transition probabilities in terms of eight different parameters. In [23], repeated vector-matrix multiplications are employed for evaluating necessary probabilistic entities. In this paper, through the spectral analysis of the transition probability matrix, the state probability vector of the underlying Markov chain is obtained in a closed form, which enables one to apply a nonlinear optimization solver for estimating the eight parameters involved so as to minimize the Euclidian distance between the expected number of CDs sold over 20 weeks calculated from the Markov model and the actual POS data. Furthermore, several new indicators are evaluated for capturing the brand characteristics of individual music artists. Five leading Japanese music artists are actually analyzed, suggesting new effective marketing strategies for each of them. The proposed approach can be applied to any market in which products are likely to be purchased only once.