SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AND SIMULATION OF FOOD SUPPLY FOR MPANDA DISTRICT IN TANZANIA
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概要
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The Mpanda District in the Rukwa region is one of many areas in Tanzania which for a long time has faced food supply related problems. This paper has analyzed the problem of food supply for Mpanda district in by using system dynamics modeling and simulation analysis methodology. The basic methods and definitions of system dynamics were developed by J. W. Forrester. The main objective, original point and contribution of this study is to introduce the application and use of system dynamics modeling and simulation approach in Tanzania and Africa. To implement the application and use, this study has developed a food supply-analytical tool for Mpanda district, Tanzania. This is an essential component in the programmatic efforts for solving food supply and agricultural production problems to develop an integrated decision support program to assist policy analyses, policy makers, decision makers, regional resource allocation for food supply and agricultural management in the Mpanda district and Tanzania in general. This research facilitates better understanding of the food supply and agricultural production in Mpanda district and other areas in Tanzania. These areas are likely to be impacted in the short and long term by family farm decisions about agricultural production methods. The system dynamics approach is a new methodology for food supply in Tanzania. Most research studies have used other analytical methods, such as econometric and optimization models. Unfortunately the research problems analyzed by econometric and optimization models remain unsolved and offer no promising sustainable solutions. Due to limitations and the merits of system dynamics as compared with other analytical methods, using system dynamics to analyze the food supply problem is a wise choice. For this analysis, the Mpanda system dynamics food supply model (MSDFSM) was developed and simulated. Factors, such as population, agricultural production, and land resources, were modeled and simulated using Vensim, system dynamics computer software, to demonstrate implications through interactions and causative effect of the variables in this study. The conclusions and summary are the results of six cases, divided into three cases of analysis of the Mpanda system dynamics food supply model and the results of three cases of marginal returns of labor and land resources. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of system dynamics modeling and simulation for the food supply in Mpanda district and concludes with policy recommendations beneficial to both policy and decision makers.
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関連論文
- SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AND SIMULATION OF FOOD SUPPLY FOR MPANDA DISTRICT IN TANZANIA
- ECONOMIC CONSTRAINTS IMPACTING THE FOOD SUPPLY IN TANZANIA : A Focus on Select Economic Aspects of the Tanzania Food Supply
- FOOD SUPPLY IN TANZANIA BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH