高度成長期日本の産業政策と設備投資調整 : エチレン30万トン基準再考
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概要
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Previous research on Japan's plant investment adjustment policy during the high-growth era, has tended to limit its focus to the investment adjustment itself. Even while focusing on the Ethylene 300,000-ton standard of 1967 for the Japanese petrochemical industry, it is difficult to discern the promotion mechanism for plant investment competition. In this paper, we would like to clarify the relationship between industrial policy and the underlying mechanisms which led to overinvestment, by expanding the area of analysis to the industrial policies on both raw material and demand sides, and by considering the role of the inter-company consortia in joint or alternate investments, in order to understand the investment adjustment strategy of the Petrochemical Cooperative Discussion Group during the period 1964 to 1974. Management in the 300,000-ton ethylene plants on a micro level between companies has also been analysed. Adjusting plant investment through industry cooperation was an industrial policy instrument which was derived from administrative guidance rather than founded in law. The setting of the Ethylene 300,000-ton standard involved a transition from a 'macro adjustment' method based on an overall demand forecast and standard rate of operation, to a method designed to value the effects of 'micro adjustments' for each individual petrochemical complex. However, factors such as the short term of the investment cycles, increasing use for producing polyvinyl chloride, and the prior policy of favoring Japanese capital in the oil refining industry, combined to promote competition during the micro adjustment phase for each 300,000-ton plan, resulting in the overinvestment. As for the plant utilization rate before the influence of the oil crisis, this was not too low. However, a large difference in the rate was observed between firms according to the size and number of plants they operated.
- 2010-01-30