The Impact of Fertilizer Subsidy and Export Tax Policies on Indonesia Cocoa Exports and Production

概要

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After Ivory Coast and the Ghana, Indonesia is the third largest cocoa producer in the world, where Sulawesi region as a main contributor in the country. As a part of the strategy for quick economic recovery, the government tried to take such policies as fertilizer price subsidy and export tax, and they are strongly debated and hypothesized to affect the Indonesia cocoa export and production, as a puzzling issue. We employed an Econometric Model in analyzing (1) the factors responsible for the cocoa export, (2) the dynamic impact of fertilizer subsidy and export tax polices on Indonesia cocoa export and production. The estimation of the model used time series data 1983-2002 by 2SLS Method. The key findings of the research discloses; (1) Indonesia cocoa export is very strongly determined by the export price, cocoa production growth, exchange rate and time trend, (2) fertilizer price subsidy policy could be very strongly expected in increasing the Indonesia cocoa export and production, whereas the imposition of export tax policy indeed has substantial negative impacts to the decreasing of export and production.
龍谷大学の論文