メルケル政権下におけるドイツ・東方関係の展開とEUの対露戦略:エネルギーの安定確保をめぐって
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概要
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Recently the broader implications of "Neue Ostpolitik" and its potential influence upon a more coherent EU strategy towards Russia have become widely discussed. This paper aims at clarifying the main aspects of a new Eastern Politics concept under German Chancellor Merkel and its effects upon the EU-Russian relationship, while especially focusing on European energy security. At first, the main policy changes initiated by Chancellor Merkel concerning the German-Russian relation are outlined and valued with regard to the urgent task of normalizing the German-Polish relationship, which has become a main factor of EU-Russian relations. Then, attention is turned to the necessity of renegotiating a new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement between the EU and Russia, discussing the efforts of securing energy supply from Russia to Europe to which Germany has become the driving force. Finally, the focus is put on the German initiative during its EU Council Presidency in the earlier half of 2007 to embark upon a new Central Asia strategy, in order to discuss the potential of a more geostrategic approach in dealing with Russia's rising energy nationalism. For the author the limits of a new German 'Ostpolitik' strategy - described by the German Foreign Ministry as "growing closer by interweaving" - serving as a blueprint for strengthening the EU-Russian relationship are obvious. Like for Germany, the transatlantic link as embedded in NATO remains essential for the EU as a whole, and therefore a strong German-Russian tie as initiated by Merkel's predecessor Schroeder does not remain a viable strategic option. Instead stressing the need for a strong EU-Russian strategic partnership, pursuing a form of cooperation that favours a more "selective" way seems more realistic. Therefore, the EU should seek for even closer cooperation in those fields Russia is willing to participate, but to strengthen its efforts to become more independent from Russia especially in regard to energy issues. Until recently the EU has not experienced concrete forms of foreign threat, but in dealing with Russia's energy supply strategy this has become a vital question. Actually the EU's new Central Asia strategy marks an important step in achieving a broader strategy towards Russia, yet because Russian interests in Central Asia are strongly effected as well, potential for further conflict remains. The EU should consistently diversify its foreign energy imports, while especially Germany needs to revaluate the potential of nuclear energy in order to underline its strong EU leadership ambitions.
- 2008-12-22
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