相関を考慮した建物群の地震損失確率関数の評価

概要

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In a portfolio seismic loss analysis for buildings located in a wide area, it is important to estimate the effect of damage correlation, because a probability mass function of physical loss such as the restoration cost of buildings undergoes effect of correlation except mean value. This paper proposed a practical prediction method for the loss probability mass function of buildings located in a wide area due to earthquakes. The method takes damage correlation into account, which depends on the relative distance between buildings, and a numerical technique based on the theorem of total probability was employed. Numerical results by the proposed method were verified by Monte Carlo simulation, and a good agreement was obtained. A loss probability mass function of 10 buildings located in the Tokyo area due to a scenario earthquake was evaluated for applicability.
2008-01-30