Influence of Arctic Oscillation towards the Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Variability under the Global Warming Scenario(JMSJ Special Edition on the Arctic Oscillation Studies)

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概要

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• Future projection of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) signature and its significance towards the northern hemispheric surface temperature trend have been examined using 20 state-of-the-art Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) outputs forced under the IPCC SRES-A1B and 20C3M emission scenario. Models are mostly successful in simulating the observed AO structure and the corresponding surface temperature variability. It is found that while AO exhibits a large positive trend, especially during the autumn season with a relatively smaller trend during the winter and spring seasons. In all seasons the interannual variance in AO remains the same for both scenarios. These features in the time-series leads to two distinct patterns of temperature variability. One is the "polar amplification" pattern due to the long-term anthropogenic forcing, which is much larger in its amplitude. Another is related to the natural variability of the AO, which is confined over the land surface and is marked by a dipole pattern of temperature between the Eurasian continent and Greenland. It is argued that the gradual trend in the AO is not a result of enhanced natural variability of the AO dynamics itself, but rather a result of the large anthropogenic forced linear trend projected onto the mean climatological state of the Arctic region. Distinguishing these two patterns of warming is crucial for detecting the signal of future global warming trend over the Eurasian continent and other regions.

• 社団法人日本気象学会の論文
• 2007-12-25

著者

• Nohara Daisuke

  Apec Climate Center

• TANAKA Hiroshi

  Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba

• HORI Masatake

  Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University

• Tanaka Hiroshi

  Center For Computational Sciences University Of Tsukuba:frontier Research Center For Global Change

• Hori Masatake

  Graduate School Of Environmental Studies Nagoya University

関連論文

• Comparison of the Extended Kalman Filter and the Ensemble Kalman Filter Using the Barotropic General Circulation Model
• Influence of Arctic Oscillation towards the Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Variability under the Global Warming Scenario(JMSJ Special Edition on the Arctic Oscillation Studies)
• Numerical Simulation of Wind Hole Circulation at Ice Valley in Korea Using a Simple 2D Model(NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE)
• EOF and SVD Analyses of the Low-Frequency Variability of the Barotropic Component of the Atmosphere

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