通貨レジームとインフレ期待 : 明治期のデータによるギブソン・パラドックスの検証

概要

論文の詳細を見る
The statistical relationship between price levels and interest rates, which is known as "Gibson Paradox", is according to Keynes "the most established fact in the monetary economics". Since Barsky and Summers (1988), the Gibson paradox has been interpreted as a phenomenon associated primary with the gold standard. The test of the Gibson paradox on the Japanese historical data is a good opportunity to find whether this claim is true because the monetary system in Meiji period went through three phases: Fiat Money, Silver Standard, and Gold Standard. Our empirical findings show that this phenomenon tends to hold in Japan only during the period of fiat money 1877-1885 and is not observed under the precious metal standards, contradicting the claim of Barsky and Summers (1988). The study also examines whether adaptive expectation hypothesis proposed by Irving Fisher holds and reveals the mechanism which governed the behavior of interest rates.
関西学院大学の論文