中国の人口政策と将来人口動向
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概要
- 論文の詳細を見る
Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, both its population policy and economic development have experienced a winding process. The Chinese mainland population was about 540 million in 1949, while by the end of 2000, it reached 1,265,830,000, according to the fifth national census. During half a century of development, the population increased by more than 720 million and reached 2.3 times that at the very beginning of China's foundation. Due to social stability, economic development and medical improvements, the mortality rate was reduced markedly, while the birthrate maintained a high level over a long period, which led to the rapid growth of the population. From 1951 to 1957, China's population grew continuously at a level of more than 2% annually. But from 1958 to 1961, growth stagnated, and negative growth appeared in 1960, a very rare situation caused by a year of natural disasters and economic problems. However, China's population soon began growing again, and reached its highest post-1949 rate in 1963. The natural growth rate dropped to below 2% for the first time in 1974 and over the following 30 years, it continued to drop. In 1999, it dropped to a new low of below 1%. The main reason that China's population growth has fallen over the past 30 years is the population and family planning program carried out by the state from the 1970s. It has led to a reduction of more than 300 million people. This program was the main population control method in the 1970s, while in the 1980s the central government advocated a policy of "one child for one couple." The main thrust of this policy was "delayed marriage and delayed childbearing, fewer and healthier births, " to control the population number and improve its quality. Through the implementation of the family planning program, the birthrate in China continued to fall. Now the population has stepped into a "low birthrate, low growth rate" phase. In March of 2000, the government issued Decisions on Reinforcing the Population and Family Planning Program and Stabilizing the Low Birthrate, making the family planning program a national policy which must be adhered to over an extended period. In December 2001, the government drafted the PRC Law on Population and Family Planning, which was implemented on Sept.1, 2002, mainly to stabilize the current fertility policy. China has set several objectives which will guide it until the middle of this century: to control the total population to within 1.33 billion until 2005 (exclusive of those in the special administrative regions of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) ; to ensure an annual natural growth rate of less than 9% ; to limit the total population to within 1.4 billion until 2010 ; and to slowly reduce the total population after reaching a peak of nearly 1.6 billion in the middle of the century. Thus China has decided that the next 10 years is a crucial period for stabilizing the low birth rate and will carry on the family planning program. However, on the other hand, the rapid reduction in the birthrate has resulted in changes in the age structure of China's population, hence exposing it to the aging trend. At present, the level of aging on the whole is not very high, but due to the rapid reduction in birthrate over the past several decades, the age structure changes will be fast, which will quicken the aging process.
- 島根県立大学の論文
- 2002-10-00