東シベリアパイプライン計画と非在来型天然資源を含めた石油埋蔵量について(<特集>北東アジアの天然資源)
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概要
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Russian government has declared in the end of year 2004 that the Pacific route of oil pipeline to the coast of Japan Sea is the main potion and should be under construction with great priority, however, they construct it to Skovorodino, the half way of its total length. They have also declared that they start to export oil in 2008, in the earliest case, before the total pipeline will be in service. Skovorodino is just the half way to Nakhodka on the coast, and the point to split into the separate pipeline to China. To construct pipeline to Nakhodka, it should be assumed that there is a plenty of oil reserves enough to supply. If it is not enough in East Siberia, the pipeline will not be completed to Nakhodka and pipeline would go only to China. Russian government express the possible oil supply to China in prior to Japan. The oil reserves in East Siberia is now an important key for the future oil supply to Japan. The pacific route is 4, 200km in length with 80 million ton per year of transporting capability, for which the budget is up to 12 trillion dollars. The estimated oil reserves at present day are only 60%, and other 15% may be added from West Siberia. Russian government, therefore, expects Japanese to confirm such amount of oil as new reserves to be found in the near future. Oils found in East Siberia have not been developed yet, because there is a little demand for consumption. Therefore, there may be uncertainty in the estimated reserves. It may be difficult to reconfirm such amount of reserves for the geologic character such as ; firstly they are produced from so-called stratigraphic traps, and secondly the production has made from very thin formations. In this paper, the author would investigate the possible un-conventional natural resources in East Siberia. Un-conventional natural resources include oil and natural gas reserves in the special environment, for which we did not account in the previous statistics because of its unconventionality and non-economic situation. However, the problem on economics would be solved if the high oil price would be maintained. Once the un-conventional natural resources are produced, they are the same oil and gas as conventional ones, for which the infra-structure does not have to be changed. This is a main advantage to keep our present petroleum-based life style. In this paper, coal bed methane and methane hydrate will be discussed as possible resources in East Siberia. The discussion suggests low possibility of such un-conventional resources in East Siberia. Therefore, the conventional reserves become more important for the plausible strategy for the natural resources in East Siberia. Japanese government, therefore, is now seeking the petroleum exploration opportunity in East Siberia. More oil will be necessary for the pipeline in the near future. To assure it, the author proposes that oil from West Siberia should be considered as an alternative until oil in East Siberia is explored and developed, for which Japanese government shall take co-operative work with Chinese as well as Russian as a possible strategy.
- 島根県立大学の論文
著者
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