アジア通貨・金融危機とアジア通貨制度のあり方(第II部 北東アジアの社会経済システム)

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概要

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• 1. The Asian currency and financial crisis was triggered by the floating of the Thai Baht in July 1997 and spread to other Asian countries. Various views have been expressed as to what were the main causes of the crisis, and those views can be classified into the following four categories. (1) The integration and globalization of financial markets in the 1990s and large amount of private capital inflows into the developing countries. (2) The structural vulnerabilities of Asian countries such as over reliance on banking sectors, lax supervisory and regulatory frameworks of financial sectors, inadequate risk assessment in banking sectors, large short-term dollar denominated debt and so on. (3) The de facto dollar peg system adopted by many Asian countries under which both lenders and borrowers underestimated exchange rate risk and unhedged borrowing accelerated. (4) Sudden and rapid reversal of foreign private capital out of Asian countries which brought about precipitous exchange rate depreciation, exchange losses by corporate sectors and accumulation of non-performing loans in the banking sectors. Though views differ as to which was the most critical cause of the crisis, there is no denying that the de facto dollar peg system was one of the main causes. 2. At present, many Asian countries are adopting the independently floating exchange rate system to cope with the current unsettled economic situations. However, this system is not the ideal one, and new system should be sought. Common basket peg system is highly recommendable as a new system since, under this system, stable exchange rate relationship among Asian currencies can be maintained and the effect of the volatile movement of major currencies is neutralized thereby making effective exchange rates stable. Williamson [1999] and Kusukawa [1999], among others, recommend this common basket peg system. 3. Some researches have been carried out to explore the possibilities of the regional currency arrangement which will eventually culminate in the currency union in East Asia. Bayoumi and Mauro [1999] comes to the conclusion that, in terms of economic criteria, at least some members of ASEAN are not far from the stage where they can pursue the currency union, and if they show the firm political commitment, the chances of regional currency arrangement will be greatly improved. However, they add that it will take longer period for ASEAN to materialize the currency union than the case of Europe since Asia is more diversified in terms of level of economic development. 4. The proposal by Japan, together with other Asian countries, to establish the Asian Monetary Fund (AMF) was rejected by the United States and IMF in 1997. However, the lack of the institutional framework is one of the main reasons why the cooperative currency arrangement is not so advanced in Asia compared with Europe. The issue of AMF should be discussed again, and to bring about the sustainable financial stability, the establishment of such a permanent institution as AMF is highly desirable. The attitude of the U.S. is most critical factor for this issue. ADB [1999] strongly maintained that the AMF, far from undermining the role of the IMF, could act as a regional complement to the IMF and contribute to minimize the systemic risk of global financial markets. 5. Though Japan has been trying to internationalize the Japanese Yen, very little progress has been made so far. The outbreak of the Asian crisis and the birth of the Euro in Europe have urged Japan to reconsider this problem. When we see the process of introducing the Euro, the medium and long term scenario of Asian monetary system needs to be drawn, and the role of Yen should be clarified within the context of the Asian monetary system. Otherwise, other Asian countries could not get clear idea about the internationalization of the Yen and any substantial progress could not be expected. Japan should take the leadership to draw the medium and long term scenario of monetary system in Asia, and to induce other Asian countries to work together toward the realization of the mutually agreeable system.

• 島根県立大学の論文

著者

• 小林 博

  島根県立大学総合政策学部

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• 中国と韓国における金融制度改革について
• 小川一夫編, 『政策危機の国際比較』, 日本評論社, 2002年刊
• アジア通貨・金融危機とアジア通貨制度のあり方(第II部 北東アジアの社会経済システム)
• 近年の制度環境の変化と邦銀経営

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