東アジア経済における構造転換連鎖と域内循環(経済摩擦と国際秩序-パックスアメリカーナと日・韓・中の地域経済圏-,総合研究)

概要

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No discussion of the outlook for individual East Asian economies and the regional economy in general is complete without reference to Toshio Watanabe's theory of interlinked structural change and the development of the intra-regional cycle. The theory of interlinked structural change holds that in East Asia, where countries are at various different stages of development, as the industrial structure of one country becomes more advanced, the labor-intensive industries that initially propelled growth will be transferred to less developed countries, thus creating an interlinked development effect. The associated intra-regional cycle is not destroyed by the East Asian economic crisis but instead promotes a return to strong growth. The theory of interlinked structural change describes the growth process to date in East Asia quite accurately, although it should be remembered that the behavior patterns of interlinked structural change are not always logical. While the theory is certainly applicable to East Asia from the 1980s through to the middle to late 1990s, its relevance beyond then is thought to be limited. As the industrial structure of the more advanced countries approximates that of industrialized nations, it will become difficult for these countries to achieve further modernization, and they will consequently have less industry left to transfer to the less developed countries. As a result, the basis for the theory will start to fall away.
1999-03-31