Evidence of Trend in Return Levels for Daily Windrun in New Zealand(NOTE AND CORRESPONDENCE)

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概要

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• Annual maxima of daily windrun is modeled statistically with respect to year for nineteen locations spread throughout New Zealand, and for one location in the Cook Islands. The generalized extreme value distribution is fitted to each data set to describe both the mean and the variability for each location and to predict statistically their behavior in the coming decades. We find evidence of significant trend in wind extremes for eight of the locations in New Zealand considered: six of these were decreases with percentage change in the median of annual maximum windrun ranging from 16-41% over the period of records, while the remaining two were increases with percentage change ranging from 20-24%. We provide estimates of 10, 100 and 1000 year return levels for daily windrun, and describe how they vary with the latitude of the locations. We also establish statistical upper bounds for maximum daily windrun for some of the locations in New Zealand: four locations in the North Island and one in the South Island.

• 2006-08-25

著者

• Nadarajah Saralees

  School Of Mathematics Univ. Of Manchester

• Nadarajah Saralees

  Department Of Statistics University Of Nebraska

• WITHERS Christopher

  Industrial Research Limited

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