第二次大戦後タイの人口統計と人口変動

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This paper deals with evaluating accuracy in population statistics in Thailand since World War II and making new population estimates for 1950 to 1995 in Thailand. Population statistics in Thailand, particularly population censuses and vital statistics, have had serious problems of undercounting and underreporting. Even the latest census had much undercounting and age-heaping. Birth and death statistics were once underreported by 30 to 40%, though recently this situation has much improved. Therefore, much research has been firstly devoted to the estimation of population and vital rates. However, these estimates are generally made for short periods of time, for example, one year for population and 5 to 10 years for vital rates. In order to solve those problems in population statistics in Thailand, new population and vital rate estimates for the consecutive years from 1950 to 1995 were carried out. First, vital data, particularly the numbers of births and deaths, was estimated using various correction factors obtained from U. N. estimates, Luther's estimates, and Population Change Surveys. Next, survivorship ratios were estimated using life tables calculated by Benjawan and Luther, and Coale and Demeny's model life table. Third, using mainly census population data in 1960 and 1990, and those estimated vital data and survivorship ratios, population by 5-year age groups and sex was calculated for the period from 1950 to 1995. The findings of the estimations are as follows. Newly estimated populations are slightly larger than formerly estimated ones. Comparing the newly estimated population with the registered population, the discrepancy between both populations has significantly decreased. Likewise, the differences between estimated and registered vital rates have also diminished.
神戸大学の論文
2001-03-05

著者

高橋眞一
神戸大学大学院経済学研究科

第二次大戦後タイの人口統計と人口変動

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