アメリカの経常赤字拡大と国際資金フロー

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概要

• 論文の詳細を見る

• The U. S. current account deficit, for which trade imbalance is by far the greatest reason, has sharply increased since the end of the 90's, reaching 4.8% of GDP in 2002. This rise is due to a government sector heavily in the red since 2001 and a household sector shift from surplus to deficit beginning in 1999. So far, the inflow of foreign capital has been more than adequate for financing the deficit, although the size of the inflow has heavily declined since 2001. Direct investment from Western Europe accounts for much of the decrease. The U. S. cannot sustain a deficit close to 5% of GDP indefinitely. It would lead to a ballooning net inward investment position, resulting in a growing deficit in income balance. The U. S. would have to significantly curtail its trade deficit just to maintain the current deficit ratio of 5%. In the eye of foreign investors, the current U. S. economy is unsound with a huge current account deficit being left uncontrolled. Therefore, it is likely that the U. S. dollar will suffer a collapse sooner or later. Should that happen, the U. S. dollar may not be able to maintain its status as the key currency, impeding smooth development of world trade. Japan's low birth rate and aging population needs to supplement its labor income with income from foreign investment. But the rapid depreciation of the dollar makes such a scenario infeasible. Japanese foreign investors may well be advised to diversify their currency positions in order to hedge the dollar risk.

• 鹿児島国際大学の論文
• 2004-03-31

著者

• 伊藤 明彦

  鹿児島国際大学

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