政府債務の持続可能性について : 平準化仮説からのアプローチ

概要

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In 2002 fiscal year, long-term public debt of Japanese government has reached almost 611 trillion yen. The purpose of this paper is to inspect the sustainability of this public debt of the Japanese government considering the fiscal operation from postwar. We can define the sustainability as that the government should satisfy its intertemporal budget constraints. To test this sustainability condition, although there are some empirical methods to inspect this problem and many empirical research results are reported, we present a new method applying smoothing hypothesis in this paper. We conduct the conditions to satisfy the sustainability from the specific relation between the second-order increments of the series of the public debt and its expected value, and apply this method to time series data. The result of the empirical investigation shows that the sustainability condition has not satisfied using the data from 1956 to 2002. However, using data from 1966 to 1992, we can conclude the Japanese government keep its intertemporal budget constrains. From these results, the cause of to dissatisfy sustainability are attributed to the government fiscal operation after 1992.
鹿児島国際大学の論文
2004-03-31