わが国社会保障制度の計量分析 (下)

概要

論文の詳細を見る
We constract a macro-econometric model in which the social security system in Japan is explained in detail. The model, estimated by the OLS method over the sample period 1975 to 1990, contains 137 endogenous variables and 41 exogenous variables. The final test shows that the explanatory affectiveness of the model is good. Dynamic simulations of the model over the forecast period 1991 to 2005 show the following results : (1) A nominal rise in prices improves the financial conditions of the Japanese social security system. (2) An inflationary tendency reduces temporarily the scale of the public assistance. (3) A direct burden increase in the medical insurances improves substantially the net balances of them. (4) The National Pension and the National Health Insurance are in financial difficulties and the financial condition of the Government-managed Health Insurance is also not so good.
福山大学の論文
1996-09-25