新規住宅供給による世帯の住替え連関モデル : 住替えを考慮した住宅供給計画モデルに関する研究(その1)

概要

論文の詳細を見る
In this study we formulate a linear model which can describe household movement caused by new housing supply in a region. Formulating the model we divide the movement process into two stages. The first stage is the movement into dwellings which are newly supplied in a fixed term. The second stage is the movement into vacant dwellings, which consist dwellings haved been resided by household who moved into newly supplied ones and other types of unoccupied dwellings. We also formulate the model to use variables and parameters as much as possible, which correspond with ones used in existing statistical materials. This can promote operational ability of the model. We apply the model to five typical Prefectures and study operational ability, usefulness and limitations as a descriptive model. Main findings of this study are as follows; 1) Numerical estimation of household movement in the next term can be done using actually supplied dwellings. This gives us useful information not derived from existing statistics and some of estimated values coincides in small error with result of the surveyed data. It means that the model can be used as a descriptive model. 2) Simulations can be done using supposed supplied dwellings classified by a housing type. Studies on results of these simulations present useful information for housing supply planning.
社団法人日本建築学会の論文
1988-06-30