PROBABILISTIC COMPUTER MODELING OF A ROCKFILL DAM : A CASE OF KHAO LAEM DAM, THAILAND

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A computer simulation model has been developed to perform a probabilistic modeling of rockfill shear strength in the form of friction angle parameter for Khao Laem Dam in western Thailand. The modeling was carried out by using Monte Carlo techniques obeying the nearest-neighbor autoregressive space law. The domain was divided into a set of equisized blocks with a single permeability value assigned to each block. Porosity value for each block was obtained by cross-correlation with the permeability value using the bivariate normal density function. From the porosity values, Barton's Equivalent Roughness Method was applied to get the corresponding friction angle values of the rockfill material. A series of porosity realization gave a series of friction angle values of the rockfill. Using Simplified Bishop Method, the values of the factor of safety for both plane strain and three-dimensional slope stability analyses were obtained corresponding to each set of friction angle values in each realization. The probability of failure was computed from the mean and variance of the factor of safety and was based on a factor of safety of less than 1. The results show that based on three arbitrary failure surfaces, the dam is safe with large values of factor of safety and low values of probability of failure. The higher the values of both the autoregressive parameter and correlation factor, the higher the probability of failure using the two-dimensional analysis. The same trend was also obtained in the three-dimensional analysis except that the magnitudes of the probability of failure were higher.
社団法人地盤工学会の論文
1986-12-15

PROBABILISTIC COMPUTER MODELING OF A ROCKFILL DAM : A CASE OF KHAO LAEM DAM, THAILAND

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