A New Prediction Method of Transportation Demand of Fast Passenger-Car Ferry, Using a Benefit-Cost-Risk Model

概要

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In the present study, a new prediction method of transportation demand based on a benefit-cost-risk model for users is developed, and the results are economically evaluated by a net present value and an internal rate of return for operators. The benefit-cost-risk model is deduced based on the utility theory in which users are assumed to behave like an investor in choosing a transportation system among many alternatives using the following factors, traveling fale, and time as cost, comfort, convenience, and safety as benefit, and motion sickness, and exhaustion as risk. The model assumes that the users always choose the transportation system, which has the maximum benefit-cost-risk ratio. Results by the model are compared to those by a generalized cost model that was proposed by one of the authors in the previous paper. In order to assess the present method, a feasibility study of fast passenger-car ferries in Osaka-Tokushima route is carried out. The results two models show that when routes are relatively short, fast passenger-car ferries of 40-50 knots are highly competitive with other transportation systems even with channel-bridges.
社団法人日本船舶海洋工学会の論文
2001-03-25