Capsizing Probability of an Indonesian RoRo Passenger Ship in Irregular Beam Seas (Third Report)

概要

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In our first report, we presented a methodology for determining the critical metacentric height of an Indonesian RoRo passenger ship in the light of the annual capsizing probability calculated with the piece-wise linear mathematical model and existing wave statistics. Then, the second report, with this methodology and more realistic data sets, concluded that the calculated annual capsizing probability of the Indonesian RoRo passenger ship almost coincides with the actual casualty statistics. In the present report, the authors attempt to take some human elements, e.g. judgement of the ship masters to avoid bad weather and effects of overloading, into account for estimating the capsizing probability based on the above method. By comparing it with acual casualty statistics, the frequent capsize of Indonesian RoRo passenger ships can be reasonably well explained with these human elements.