Country riskの概念とPerestroika期に於けるソ連のCountry risk評価
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概要
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The present paper has been written for the purpose of introducing readers of socialist countries, particularly to a wide scope of readers of the USSR, not only concepts of "country risk" but a coutry risk rating method that have been enjoying big confidence of investors as a reliable way of analyzing countries to lay out their money. To be concrete, we take up the definition of the concepts of country risk and its rating method developed by "The Japan Bond Research Institute (JBRI)" and evaluated as the most authoritative concepts and method in Japan. We also tried to give our own definition of country risk. The most important momentum making a difference between country risk and other kinds of risks consists in the fact that in the former a risk takes place by an active or passive act of the state power of the said country. In case country risk troubles are usually economical ones and suffers from the troubles may not be simply foreign natural and juridical persons but also foreign government or state themselves. Since a country risk is caused by some or other works of the state power, it can not be transitory disease but usually chronic one. In order to form a concrete estimate of country risk the above mentioned institute itemizes 15 indices i.e. (1) social stability, (2) political stability, (3) consistency of policies, (4) industrialization, (5) economic problems (inflation, unemployment etc.), (6) fiscal policy, (7) monetary policy, (8) growth potential, (9 ) susceptibility of war, ( 10) international standing, (11) balance of payment, (12) debt service capacity, (13) investment policy, (14) foreign exchange policy, (15) general rating index. The last index means such degree of risk as the said country or its enterprises find themselves insolvent in collection of ctrdit and revulsion of capital by creditors. The second point we wish to do in this article is to show the readers the dynamics of the country risk for USSR during the period of Perestroika. In short rating has be going down considerably. Investors are timid and like stability. Readers can realize clearly that no matter what excitement is unattractive for capital. Since no kind of dictatorial political system is unstable in our days, only wealthy society with mature democratic system enjoys honor of society with little or no country risk. And finally we must say that open exchange of important political and economical information in global scale is quite inevitable, because everybody wishes to avert troubles caused by country risk. We call this kind of open and democratic system "global glasnost".
- 日本スラヴ・東欧学会の論文