確率的予測の不的中と情報源の信頼度評価 : より好ましくない方向への不的中がもたらす影響
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概要
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The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of the direction in which probabilistic forecast has failed on the reliability evaluation of an informational source. That is, when the forecast fails and it leads you to an unfavorable situation, the reliability of the informational source of the forecast would be deteriorated more than when the failure is in the other direction. As a whole, the results of this experiment supported the hypothesis. But it was also shown that this hypothesis does not always hold good on all subjects. The above hypothesis does not apply when the forecast failure is not attributed to the source of information. For the negative feelings caused by the failure would not be associated with the source of information and therefore would not mediate the path to the reliability evaluation of the informational source.
- 日本社会心理学会の論文
- 1993-03-10
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