フランス、一九七七年世論調査法の分析 : 一九八八年大統領選挙の中で
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概要
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So far, many studies have been undertaken concerning the effects of public opinion polls on the election outcome; e.g. the bandwagon effect, underdog effect, etc. In 1977, the law concerning publication of these polls was enacted in France. These polls are controlled by the Commission of Public Opinion Polls, which is one of the"autorite administratives independantes", and their publication is banned one week prior to the voting day. In April-May 1988, the presidential election was carried out in France. More than one hundred forty polls concerning this election were published between November 1987 and April 1988. This situation, a flood of polls, is related to the presidential election, legislated in 1962 under the initiative of President Charles de Gaulle. Two years after the first presidential election in 1965, a senator introduced a bill in the Upper House in order to control the polls and ban them for the week before the election. The law enacted in 1977 has many defects. The definitions of some terms are obscure and some provisions are not well adapted. However, this law is supported by many persons, on account of the anxiety about"sondocratie"(control by the polls) and the generous regulation by the Commission of Public Opinion Polls. I will analyse this law, focusing on the 1988 presidential election. We can see some incidents in this election; such as an appeal to the Commission by a candidate Raymond Barre, and a leakage of the poll results by the"Renseignements generaux", an intelligence office, etc. Lastly, I will analyse the theory of resolution of Jean-Jacques Rousseau and criticize the provision banning the publication of the polls.
- 1990-04-30