EVALUATION OF CONCURRENT CHARACTERISTICS OF RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE BY A STOCHASTIC TYRHOON MODEL

概要

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A stochastic typhoon model with three properties; central atmospheric pressure and direction of movement and moving velocity was constructed from B-spline functions and multivariate autoregressive models. This stochastic model generates hourly data on typhoon location, central pressure, direction of movement and moving velocity. About 2820 typhoons for a period of 600 years were generated. The sequences of their rainfall intensities in hours and their storm surges in hours or 10-minute intervals were simulated at Osaka from regression models. Concurrent characteristics of rainfall and storm surge; the frequency distribution of the occurrence time lags, the spatial distributions of typhoon locations at peak rainfall intensities and maximum storm surges, and the joint return periods of large storm surges and heavy rainfall intensities were evaluated from historical and simulated data.
日本自然災害学会の論文