Strong Motion Simulation for the Philippines Based on Seismic Hazard Assessment

概要

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A simulation technique for strong ground motion based on seismic hazard analysis for the Philippines that incorporates both historical earthquakes and active faults is presented. The database for historical earthquake occurrences from 1907 to 1998,provided by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) was used. Philippine active faults identified from various geotectonic studies of the country were compiled. Seismic source zoning for the Philippines was based on the occurrence rates of historical earthquakes. A polygonal source area model was used to represent seismic source zones. Estimation formulas for peak ground acceleration (A_<max>) and effective ground acceleration (A_e), used with the JMA scale of seismic intensity, were developed from 118 components of selected strong ground motion records for engineering foundation levels in Japan. Expected ground motion parameters corresponding to both rare events of 475 years recurrence (10% in 50 years) and occasional events of 100 years recurrence (39% in 50 years) in the Philippines were determined. Hazard-consistent magnitudes and hypo-central distances from different source zones for the three major Philippine cities, Manila, Cebu, and Davao, were obtained probabilistically, and their respective acceleration, velocity, and displacement time histories simulated.
日本自然災害学会の論文