Interannual Variability and Predictability in an Ensemble of Climate Simulations with the MRI-JMA AGCM

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概要

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• An analysis of variance approach, for systematically studying and evaluating the nterannual variability and predictability of seasonal mean fields, is demonstrated using an ensemble of six 50-year simulations of the 500 hPa geopotential height field from the Meteorological Research Institute-Japan Meteorological Agency (MRI-JMA) global atmosphere model forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The model performance is analysed, for the seasons June-July-August (JJA) and December-January-February (DJF), and compared with NCEP reanalysis. The magnitude and geographical distribution of the unpredictable weather noise variability (interannual variability of seasonal mean series arising from intraseasonal variability) are simulated well by the model. The spatial distribution of the potentially predictable variability (the interannual variability of seasonal means from which sampling error due to weather noise variability is removed) is simulated fairly well for DJF, but relatively poorly for JJA. Despite this, however, several extratropical wintertime patterns, identified as the EOFs of the seasonal mean fields, are well simulated by the model. These include the two patterns forced by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): the Tropical Northern Hemisphere (for DJF), and the Tropical Southern Hemisphere (for JJA) patterns. In addition, the three patterns forced by the tropical Indian Ocean: Western Pacific (for DJF), Meridional Wavetrain (for JJA), and Southern Indian Ocean (for JJA) patterns, are also well simulated.

• 社団法人日本気象学会の論文
• 2004-02-25

著者

• Sugi Masato

  Meteorological Research Institute

• ZHENG Xiaogu

  National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research

• FREDERIKSEN Carsten

  Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre

関連論文

• Projection of changes in future weather extremes using super-high-resolution global and regional atmospheric models in the KAKUSHIN Program: Results of preliminary experiments
• Influence of the Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Climatology : An Experiment with the JMA Global Model
• Influence of Greenhouse Warming on Tropical Cyclone Frequency
• Interannual Variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon and Internal Variability in the JMA Global Model Simulations
• SIMULATIONS OF INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON USING THE JMA MODEL
• Interannual Variability and Predictability in an Ensemble of Climate Simulations with the MRI-JMA AGCM
• Possible change of the seasonal variations of East Asian summer rainfall due to enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols : study with a high-resolution AGCM
• Cyclone Activities in the Northern Hemisphere Analyzed from the NCEP Reanalysis Data and Simulated in a High-resolution AGCM
• Cyclone Climatology over East Asia-Pacific Region Simulated in a High Resolution AGCM
• Comparison of radiative fluxes obtained from the JMA model and from satellite-derived data

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