幕末における結婚と出生率決定メカニズム : 長州藩一農村の人口プロファイル
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概要
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The study of historical demography in England shows that nuptiality played a key role in determining fertility levels during the pre-industrial period. Several scholars have argued as to whether the same demographic pattern exists in Tokugawa Japan. For instance, Susan HANLEY insists that the mean age at first marriage or the percentage of women married is quite sensitive to short-term economic conditions; therefore, nuptiality also played a key role in determining fertility levels in Tokugawa Japan. On the other hand, Japanese scholars such as Osamu SAITO are quite skeptical about the possibility of similarities between Japan and western Europe, because of the relatively poor quality of the data which HANLEY used. Her study relies upon several series of shumon-aratame-cho, the annual village census, in Okayama-han. The data are weak because each series covers a relatively small population and there are also a certain number of records missing. In this paper I have used tojaku, the population registers, which were compiled within the Choshu-han region in the late Tokugawa period. The tojaku which I used here covers about one thousand inhabitants each year with almost no missing records; therefore, it can be considered a better source for the study of short-term demographic changes. In order to find the determinants of fertility, the mean age at first marriage, the marriage rate and the percentage of women married were regressed with the annual crude birth rate. No statistically significant relationship was found between these three variables and the crude birth rate. Interestingly, there was a clear positive relationship between the marriage rate and the mean age at first marriage. From this observation, I can conclude that relatively older women were given priority in marrying, and that nuptiality did not therefore play a key role in determining fertility levels in Tokugawa Japan.
- 社会経済史学会の論文
- 1995-01-25
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関連論文
- 菊池勇夫著, 『飢饉の社会史』, 校倉書房、一九九四年六月、二九二頁、三〇九〇円
- 幕末における結婚と出生率決定メカニズム : 長州藩一農村の人口プロファイル
- Gary P. Leupp Servants, Shophands, and Laborers in the Cities of Tokugawa Japan. Princeton University Press, 1992, pp. xiii+237
- マイケル・アンダーソン著, 北本正章訳, 『家族の構造・機能・感情』, 海鳴社、一九八八年九月、VI+一八二頁、一六〇〇円