A simple method to estimate the potential increase in the number of generations under global warming in temperate zones
スポンサーリンク
概要
- 論文の詳細を見る
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that the global mean surface air temperature will increase about 2℃ above the 1990 level by 2100. Such an increase in temperature may result in an increase in the number of generations per year of most insects. Several simulation models have been constructed to predict the increase in the number of generations, but these require a great deal of calculation to obtain estimates for many insect species at various locations under various scenarios of global warming. This paper proposes an analytical method to enable a quick estimation. Two assumptions are used : (1) The developmental rate of insects is approximately given by a linear function of temperature (T), with a developmental zero (T_0) and a thermal constant (K). (2) The increase in temperature is approximately even throughout the year. Let m be the current annual mean temperature at a given location, and ΔT the potential increase in temperature under global warming at the location. If the temperature before the ΔT-rise is higher than T_0 in summer and lower than (T_0-ΔT) in winter, the increase in the number of generations per year, which is denoted by ΔN, is approximately given by ΔN≈ΔT[c+ d(m-T_0)]/K, where c and d are constants. The validity of the approximation is checked using the "smoothed daily normals" in Japan obtained as a running mean of 15 successive daily normals where a daily normal is defined as the averaged daily temperatures for 30 years from 1960 to 1990. The estimates are c=204.4 and d=12.46. Using this formula, linear isoclines of ΔN are plotted in a graph of T_0 versus K. By plotting the T_0 and K of various insects in this graph, we can estimate the increase in the number of generations under global warming in temperate zones.
- 日本応用動物昆虫学会の論文
- 1998-05-25
著者
-
Yamamura Kohji
Laboratory Of Biometrics National Institute Of Agro-environmental Sciences
-
Yamamura Kohji
Laboratory Of Population Ecology National Institute Of Agro-environmental Sciences
-
Kiritani K
Laboratory Of Population Ecology National Institute Of Agro-environmental Sciences
-
Kiritani Keizi
Laboratory of Population Ecology, National Institute of Agro-Environmental Sciences
関連論文
- Estimation of dispersal distance by mark-recapture experiments using traps : correction of bias caused by the artificial removal by traps
- Estimating number of families for an urban fox population by using two public data sets
- Harvest-based Bayesian estimation of sika deer populations using state-space models
- Evaluation of relative density indices for sika deer in eastern Hokkaido, Japan
- Effects of size and color of female models for male mate orientation in the white-spotted longicorn beetle Anoplophora malasiaca (Coleoptera : Cerambycidae)
- Direct behavioral evidence for hydrocarbons as nestmate recognition cues in Formica japonica(Hymenoptera: Formicidae)
- Random median sampling to enhance the precision of population estimates
- How to analyze long-term insect population dynamics under climate change : 50-year data of three insect pests in paddy fields
- Adaptive management of sika deer populations in Hokkaido, Japan : theory and practice
- Studies on Ecology and Behavior of Japanese Black Swallowtail Butterflies(Lepidoptera : Papilionidae) : V. Fecundity in Summer Generations
- Studies on Ecology and Behavior of Japanese Black Swallowtail Butterflies. III. Diurnal Tracking Behavior of Adults in Summer Generation
- Population estimation by a one-release, two-capture experiment
- Sampling plan using grade of infestation to estimate population density
- A Method for Population Estimation from a Single Release Experiment
- Estimation of Male Adult Population of Sweet Potato Weevils, Cylas formicarius (FABRICIUS) (Coleoptera, Curculionidae) on Kikai Island in Japan
- Estimation of the potential speed of range expansion of an introduced species : characteristics and applicability of the gamma model
- A two-stage sampling method with stratified secondary units
- Insect pest density per leaf area as a measure of pest load
- Special feature : global climate change and the dynamics of biological communities
- Dispersal distance of corn pollen under fluctuating diffusion coefficient
- Colony expansion model for describing the spatial distribution of populations
- A Simple Method to Estimate Insect Mortality from Field Census Data:A Modification of the Kiritani-Nakasuji-Manly Method
- Estimation of the probability of insect pest introduction through imported commodities
- Estimating the Reproductive Properties of the Sweet Potato Weevil, Cylas formicarius (FABRICIUS) (Coleoptera, Brentidae)
- Estimations of Attractive Area of Pheromone Traps and Dispersal Distance, of Male Adults of Sweet Potato Weevil, Cylas formicarius (FABRICIUS) (Coleoptera, Curculionidae)
- Diurnal Changes in Micro-Habitat Usage and Behavior of Cylas formicarius (FABRICIUS) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Adults
- Using the Mark-and-Release Method in the Estimation of Adult Population of Sweet Potato Weevil, Cylas formicarius (Fabricius) in a Sweet Potato Field
- Studies on Ecology and Behavior of Japanese Black Swallowtail Butterflies : VIII. Survivorship Curves of Adult Male Populations in Papilio helenus nicconicolens BUTLER and P. protenor demetrius CRAMER(Lepidoptera : Papilionidae)
- Studies on Ecology and Behavior of Japanese Black Swallowtail Butterflies : IV. Estimation of Life Span of Male Papilio helenus nicconicolens BUTLER and P. protenor demetrius CRAMER (Lepidoptera : Papilionidae)
- Studies on Ecology and Behavior of Japanese Black Swallowtail Butterflies : I. Ecological Characteristics of Male Populations in Papilio helenus nicconicolens BUTLER and P.protenor demetrius CRAMER : Lepidoptera : Papilionidae
- Biodiversity and stability of herbivore populations : influences of the spatial sparseness of food plants
- A simple method to estimate the potential increase in the number of generations under global warming in temperate zones
- Dispersal distance of heterogeneous populations
- Effects of plant density on the survival rate of cabbage pests
- Stabilization Effects of Spatial Aggregation of Vectors in Plant Disease Systems
- Transformation using (x+0.5) to stabilize the variance of populations
- Relation between plant density and arthropod density in cabbage fields