リーディング・セクターによる為替決定論 : 日米独における自動車産業の労働生産性格差と為替相場

概要

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It is so difficult to pick up only one vital determinant among various kinds of factors which seem to affect the determination of a rate of foreign exchange, because a rate of foreign exchange itself is a kind of an overall index of an economy. However, a problem of which factors dominate more strongly a rate of foreign exchange may be accessible. There are basically two standpoints in the way of access to this problem : a real economy approach and a monetary approach. This paper is on a real economy approach, which we term 'a real economy fundamentals-approach', and this paper tried to verify the hypothesis that the differential of labor productivity in the leading sector between two countries gives the causal effect to a rate of foreign exchange rate at medium term. We took up Japan, the US, and Germany as a comparison country, and the automobile industry as a leading sector. We obtained a highly correlation as a result of verification by the least squares method during 1975-1995. A correlation, of course, is not a causation, but we may suppose that the differential of labor productivity in the automobile industry affected more strongly determining a rate of foreign exchange and our hypothesis may be verified.
城西大学の論文
2001-03-24