冷戦終結前後の軍拡メカニズム
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概要
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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the arms re-expansion declared by the U. S. government in 1995 and clarify the mechanism which differs in fundamental respects in its expansion in the Cold War This article, firstly, describes how the defense policy of the U. S. had changed from the arms reduction in 1992 to the expansion in 1995, focusing on the fact that the victory of the GOP in the election of 1994 was the cause of it. Secondly, in order to explain the theoretical importance of each candidate's ideology taking into consideration the weight of various issues, I introduce the spatial theory of voting known as the "Downsian model," and examine the limitations of this mainstream model. According to this model, proposals from both sides completely converge to the policy (point) most preferred by the median voter because the "median-voter principal" works. Certainly, we can observe such a phenomena, however, in reality there still exist some difference between the two of them. As some policy scientists state, the gap between the theory and the reality is caused by the way the utility function of a candidate is defined. Traditional Downsians have defined a candidate as a political survivor who seeks to maximize the support of his/her electorate. On the other hand, some other rationalists such as Ishida add a further type of candidate such as an ideology-maximizer, who tries to translate his/her own ideal policy into his/her campaign promises. Given these distinctions, I design a hypothesis concerning candidate's behaviors as follows, as long as the electorate's needs are adequately satisfied, a candidate will try to state his/her ideas on a given proposal Consequently, analyzing the election data of 1994, I find the fact that in the Post-Cold War era candidates can follow their line (ideology), even if the proposal, the defense proposal in this case, is less popular in the public-opinion polls, as long as the issue is not salient. We find from theoretical and empirical investigations that policy choices are not only the function of public opinion, but also that of the ideology of candidates and the weight placed on various issues. Thirdly, to verify the above hypothesis, this article takes the elections of 1988 and 1992 as examples, and finally, we arrive at the conclusion that even in the Post-Cold War era, the possibility of arms expansion can still exist independent of public opinion.
- 上智大学の論文
- 2002-03-31