An Optimal Period of Private Vehicle Ownership: An Application of Deterministic Dynamic Programming
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概要
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In this paper, an optimal period of private vehicle ownership is analyzed in the framework of deterministic dynamic programming in order to derive an optimal decision rule for a commuter who maximizes present value of net returns over a given planning horizon. A mid-size compact passenger vehicle for the use of everyday commuting between home and workplace is chosen for the analysis, and the required cost data are based on the author's maintenance records of his own personal vehicle. However, any vehicle in a different environment with different cost data can be considered to derive an optimal decision rule in the same manner. The main points of the analysis are: (1) the higher resale value of the vehicle increases one's incentive to trade it in for a new one, (2) frequent vehicle break-downs increase the maintenance costs and decrease the personal value of the vehicle faster, which makes one want to replace the vehicle early while it still retains some resale value. The above two points considerably influence one's optimal period of vehicle ownership. Some might say that this is just "Common sense." However, that critique only highlights the strength of this analysis. The point of this paper is to illustrate the analytical structure for a logically sequenced decision making process in the vehicle ownership problem. It is quite reasonable that the conclusions of this analysis correspond with so-called "common sense."
- 青森公立大学の論文
- 1998-03-15
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- An Optimal Period of Private Vehicle Ownership: An Application of Deterministic Dynamic Programming