確率概念の教授=学習 : 教材化に関する理論的考察
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概要
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By employing intuitive heuristics, people are prone to make erroneous intuitive judgments on uncertain events. This proneness reveals two kinds of serious gaps between logic and intuition: the first in application and the second in interpretation. The first one arises from the people's failure in the application of the rules of probability theory to the uncertain events, and the second one from the people's little confidence in the outcome of the application itself. Now, to stop the first gap, mainly two methods are proposed: (1) to incorporate those problems, which cannot be expected by the learners, into the teaching materials, and (2) to develop heuristics which are not only intuitively accessible to the learners but also mathematically correct in the light of probability theory. In order to fill the second gap, the use of appropriate probability experiments is suggested. Only when the naive fallible intuitions are thus overcome by the logic and adequately mathematized, this author asserts, probabilistic concepts for real-life judgments on uncertain events are mastered.
- 東京大学の論文
- 1984-03-30