<原著論文>ケインズの不確実性・情報・コンベンション

概要

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One of Keynes's, contribution to economic analysis was to lay emphasis on uncertainty, as not be managed by the frequency theory of probability. He pointed out that every economic agent are forced to make decision in the shortage of the relevant information. Especially, they are unable to forecast correctly the future events by reason of extremely incomplete information. However, if there were no daily and special decision-making in the midst of darkness concerning future time, our industrial soceity could not develop. In my opinion, Keynes analyzed decision-making under uncertainty throughout his whole life as economist. His analytical tools probability, weight of argument, uncertainty, confidence, convention appear mainly in Treaties on Probability. The General Theory, and 1937 Quarterly Journal of Economics article. In this paper, I will study inner structure and mutual relation of these tools as follows : (1) Induction and Probability (2) Uncertainty and Economic World (3) Weight of Argument (4) From Uncertainty to Convention (5) Social Philosophy of Convention Supplement : Uncertainty and Progress of Information Technology
群馬大学の論文
1999-03-20