都道府県間人口移動を考慮した山口県の人口予測

概要

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This paper describes the simulation model to estimate the population in Yamaguchi prefecture. The model consists of the migration sub-model and the cohort sub-model. In the migration sub-model, the number of inter-prefectural migrants for all of Japan, the number of out-migrants from each prefecture, the rates of inter-prefectural migrants, and the number of in-migrants into each prefecture are estimated according to the 4-stage estimation. In the cohort sub-model, the number of birth and the number of death by sex and age in Yamaguchi prefecture are estimated according to the time series model. For the year of 2000,the population by sex and age in Yamaguchi prefecture is estimated. As a result, it is found that the population pyramid will change from gourd-shape to hanging-bell-shape and that aged population will increase and young population will decrease.
山口大学の論文