<論文>現実主義と武力紛争 : パラセル諸島紛争の事例によるパワー変動理論の検証

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概要

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• The purpose of this paper is to test a power shift theory by the case of the 1974 Paracel Islands conflict. The hypothesis predicts that the power transition is likely to cause a military conflict: the more the distribution of power changes, the more the probability of an armed conflict rises. The changing balance of power gives a relatively powerful state an opportunity to expand. The careful examination of the Paracels conflict shows that the power shift theory provides a good explanation of the Chinese offensive against South Vietnam. The U.S. withdrawal from Indochina in the early 1970s affected the regional balance of power in favor of China. China took the most advantage of this strategic chance to extend its sea territories: It attacked and seized the Paracel Islands from the radically declining South Vietnam. The evidence from this event suggests that the uneven distribution of power led to Chinese expansionist behavior. Thus, the 1974 Sino-Vietnamese armed clash confirms the power shift proposition.

• 2003-03-30

著者

• 野口 和彦

  東海大学教養学部

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• 現実主義と武力紛争 : パラセル諸島紛争の事例によるパワー変動理論の検証

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