人口構造の高齢化と高齢者政策 : スウェーデンにおける実態

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The Swedish population has been characterized by a growing proportion of old age pensioners and a diminishing proportion of children. However, the Swedish fertility rate has increased gradually since 1986. Based on analysis of the trend of cohort fertility rate in 1985,it was assumed that the total fertility rate in Sweden would remain constant at 1.80,but it recovered to 2.0 in 1989. So, the trend may have turned in Sweden, and the population structure will probably change in the near future. This paper reviews the theories of demographic transition. Traditional theories of demographic transition developed by Blacker, C. P.; Leibenstein, H.; Tachi, M.; Yasukawa, M. and others attribute secular decline in Western European fertility to gradual changes in socio-eco nomicfactors. More recently (1980), the model of Easterlin, Pollak, and Wachter may explain the different patterns of declining birth and death rates, since the timing of change can vary by country. More recently in 1985,Haynes, S. E.; Phillips, L.; and Votey, H. L. empirically explored the structural change transition model by applying the Brown-Durbin test of structural change to annual data from the demographic transitions of Sweden, as well as Norway, England and Wales. The Swedish official prognosis was that population would increase by about 100,000 by the turn of the century, when it would then begin to decline. However, in the new prognosis, the population is predicted to increase by over 300,000 by the year 2000,and by almost 600,000 by the year 2025 (total population is 9,024,000). The main reasons for the difference in prognosis are the higher fertility rate and increased immigration. In the earlier prognosis, based on an analysis on the trends of cohort fertility, it was assumed that the total fertility rate would increase from 1.74 in 1985 to 1.8 in 1991 and remain constant thereafter. However, in the newer prognosis, it is assumed that the fertility rate will stabilize at the level of 1.9-2.0 children per woman. So, the number of children 0-6 years of age is expected to increase. Thus, the number of persons over the age of 65 will remain largely unchanged until the turn of the century. However, the number of truly elderly people-over the age of 80-will increase sharply.
東海大学の論文

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永山泰彦
東海大学教養学部

人口構造の高齢化と高齢者政策 : スウェーデンにおける実態

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