Decommissioning and Equipment Replacement of Nuclear Power Plants under Uncertainty

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概要

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• This study examines the optimal timing for the decommissioning and equipment replacement of nuclear power plants. We consider that the firm has two options of decommissioning and equipment replacement, and determines to exercise these options under electricity price uncertainty. This problem is formulated as two optimal stopping problems. The solution of this model provides the value of the nuclear power plant and the threshold values for decommissioning and replacement. The dependence of decommissioning and replacement strategies on uncertainty and each cost is shown. In order to investigate the probability of events for decommissioning and replacement, Monte Carlo calculations are performed. We also show the probability distribution and the conditional expected time for each event.

• 2007-11-25

著者

• Madarame Haruki

  Nuclear Professional School The University Of Tokyo

• Madarame Haruki

  Nuclear Engineering Research Laboratory Faculty Of Engineering University Of Tokyo

• TAKASHIMA Ryuta

  Department of Nuclear Engineering and Management, The University of Tokyo

• NAITO Yuta

  Department of Quantum Engineering and Systems Science, The University of Tokyo

• KIMURA Hiroshi

  Nuclear Professional School, The University of Tokyo

• Naito Yuta

  Department Of Quantum Engineering And Systems Science The University Of Tokyo

• Takashima Ryuta

  Department Of Nuclear Engineering And Management The University Of Tokyo

• Kimura Hiroshi

  Nuclear Professional School The University Of Tokyo

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